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Tuesday, March 15 • 11:45am - 12:15pm
From Uncertainty to Value Generator: Using Risk to Identify BD Opportunities

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One of the most critical assumptions impacting deal valuations in life sciences is the probability of success (POS) – the likelihood an asset will progress through development to approval. Companies have long viewed this as a critical assumption in evaluating potential business development opportunities. Historically, most companies and investors have focused their use of this risk assessment to measuring subsequent event likelihood or downside potential. However, recent improvements in the quality of data, analytical techniques, and underlying technology have the potential to uncover new BD opportunities where the market may have “mispriced” risk – where applying novel approaches may increase our fidelity on projecting success rate and therefore value.

We analyzed the variances in sources and methodologies for assessing development risk and impact on asset valuations, as well as whether “risk arbitrage” might exist to uncover undervalued opportunities. In our session, we will review our findings and share a perspective on how companies and investors can utilize risk assessment as a competitive advantage in screening and valuing life science deals.

avatar for Cody Powers

Cody Powers

Principal, ZS Associates
Cody is a principal in ZS’s New York office, focused on early stage commercial development, business development and M&A, and franchise growth strategy. He has over nine years of experience in healthcare and life sciences consulting across a range of strategy issues, including early... Read More →

Tuesday March 15, 2022 11:45am - 12:15pm PDT